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The European Central Bank expects wage growth to reach 2.6% in the third and fourth quarters of 2026.

In its monthly oil market report released on Wednesday, the International Energy Agency stated that the global oil market will gradually recover from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and will then shift to significant surplus by 2027.The United States and Iran have reached an agreement to end a three-month conflict, including Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the US lifting its maritime blockade. This could put an end to what is estimated by the International Energy Agency as the largest oil supply disruption in history (with the interruption reducing Middle East oil production by over 14 million barrels per day).The agency stated: “If the agreement holds, exports and production in the Gulf region should gradually recover—especially after the US blockade is lifted, allowing full restoration of Iran's oil exports.” In its first outlook for 2027, the International Energy Agency pointed out that the oil market will then move into a state of significant supply surplus, with global oil supply surging by 8 million barrels per day, while demand will grow by only 2 million barrels per day.The International Energy Agency stated: “This may provide the market with a respite, creating an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories or establish new strategic reserves, giving countries a chance to reassess their energy strategies and policies for responding to crises.”

⑴ European stock markets edged higher on Wednesday, with both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 rising by 0.1%. This follows gains of about 1% and 0.4% respectively in the previous two sessions, with both indices hitting record highs. Investors paused to assess the recent gains while awaiting further details on the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants are also focusing on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.⑵ ASML rose 1.5%, Schneider Electric gained 1.3%, and UniCredit climbed 1%. Leonardo increased 1% after the Italian government conditionally approved the company’s joint venture with Baykar. The automotive sector performed the weakest, with BMW shares falling more than 6% after the automaker lowered its earnings guidance.⑶ Energy stocks also declined as oil prices fell for the fifth consecutive session, with Shell down 1.3%, TotalEnergies down 0.7%, and BP down 1.5%.