News

VIPThe CLARITY Act: Crypto Regulation and Investment Outlook

1. The CLARITY Act is approaching a critical legislative milestone. The first comprehensive U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets has already passed the House of Representatives and the Senate Banking Committee. However, three key issues—the proposed ban on stablecoin yields, enforcement authority, and conflict-of-interest disclosure requirements for public officials—continue to delay a full Senate vote. With the Senate set to recess on August 10, the legislative window is narrowing. If enacted, the bill would, for the first time, clearly define the respective jurisdictions of the SEC and the CFTC, providing a long-awaited regulatory foundation for digital asset valuations. 2. 2. The CLARITY Act would establish a unified federal regulatory framework for digital assets, ending years of regulatory ambiguity. We assign a 35–40% probability to the bill's passage, with leading DeFi protocols standing to benefit most , as the proposed safe-harbor provisions would provide decentralized protocols with greater regulatory certainty. Market leaders with strong competitive moats and pricing power—including UNI, AAVE, and LDO—would be well positioned to benefit from a valuation re-rating as regulatory uncertainty gives way to greater compliance clarity. Even if the legislation is delayed, the bill has already outlined the likely long-term direction of U.S. crypto regulation. 3. Macro events take center stage this week, with the July 29 FOMC meeting and the release of Core PCE on the next day marking one of the year's most important macro event windows. Markets assign a 63.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed's balance sheet remains steady at approximately $6.75 trillion, suggesting broadly neutral liquidity conditions. Meanwhile, BTC is trading around $65,000, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in Fear territory at 27. Total stablecoin market capitalization has surpassed $315 billion, reaching another record high, indicating ample sidelined liquidity that has yet to translate into stronger demand for crypto assets. Assets to watch: UNI, AAVE, LDO, BTC, ETH, SOL, rMSFT, rAAPL, rAMZN, rMETA.

VIPThe AIGC Era Has Arrived: Mapping the AI Infrastructure Value Chain

1. Our view: The AIGC era has arrived, and 'tokens' are the productivity tool of this new era. To understand the investment opportunities in AI, investors need a comprehensive view of the underlying infrastructure ecosystem. In 2026, the combined capital expenditure of the world's four largest cloud providers is expected to exceed $300 billion, representing more than 40% year-over-year growth. While enterprise AI applications are already driving rapid ARR growth, the broader consumer monetization opportunity remains largely untapped. The AI value chain ultimately depends on demand for token consumption downstream and the ability to generate tokens upstream. The productivity impact of the entire ecosystem has yet to be fully priced in. 2. Deep dive into the AI supply chain: This report analyzes the full stack of AI server hardware and ranks 14 key segments based on the strength of their competitive moats. The optical module market is expected to reach $26 billion in 2026, doubling from 2024, with a projected 2024–2028E CAGR of approximately 68%. Upstream laser chip suppliers are capturing excess profits due to supply constraints and high technical barriers. Key names to watch include Coherent (COHR, price target: $380, +37%) and Lumentum (LITE, price target: $1050, +33%). 3. CFTC positioning signals: The divergence between WTI positioning and price action warrants attention. Long positioning in agricultural commodities has become increasingly crowded. All six major currencies remain net short against the U.S. dollar, reflecting strong consensus around continued dollar strength. Assets to watch: COHR, LITE, BTC, ETH, Brent crude oil, and gold.

VIPBank Earnings Kick Off the Q2 Earnings Season: Positioning for a Higher-Rate Market

1. Three tailwinds are converging for bank earnings: Renewed rate hike expectations are supporting net interest margins, large potential IPOs involving SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are lifting expectations for investment banking revenue, and geopolitical tensions are reinforcing the higher-for-longer rate environment. Amid elevated AI-driven technology valuations, bank stocks are emerging as a defensive sector offering both earnings visibility and upside potential, with several names positioned to extend their gains toward new all-time highs. 2. Cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs remain at $51.7 billion, indicating that the broader institutional allocation trend remains intact. However, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 24, firmly in Extreme Fear territory. Given the strong positive correlation between ETF flows and the Fear & Greed Index, current depressed sentiment may present an attractive window for dollar-cost averaging into BTC. Recommended focus: weekly BTC DCA. 3. Renewed inflationary pressure is supporting commodities. Energy commodities led gains last week, with WTI crude rising 4.2% and cotton climbing 8.1%, while U.S. equities traded in a narrow range. CFTC positioning data show broad net shorts across non-U.S. currencies, reflecting strong consensus around further U.S. dollar strength. Short positions in the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar are particularly crowded.