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18:37
Fed Chair Powell: Inflation Well Above 2% Target, No Dot Plot Projection Provided Today
BlockBeats News, June 18th, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that the goal is to correctly implement monetary policy amid inflation well above the 2% target. Recent history should not be a prelude to an inflation problem, and no updated Summary of Economic Projections was provided today. He agreed that forward guidance may not be well-suited for the current situation. (Kryptonite)
18:30
Middle East Conflict Reshapes Fed Expectations: Nearly Half of Policymakers Shift Toward Rate Hike Outlook, Comprehensive Inflation Forecast Upgrade
BlockBeats News, June 18th, Foreign media analysis pointed out that nearly half of Federal Reserve policymakers no longer believe that it is enough to just keep borrowing costs steady to bring inflation back to the 2% target level after the surge in oil prices following the Iran war. The latest Fed dot plot revealed individual views on the interest rate path among policymakers. The dot plot shows that the focus of the Fed's internal debate has quickly shifted: from previously focusing on how long rates should remain unchanged before a rate cut, it has now turned to increasingly intensifying concerns about rate hikes—some are even convinced that the Fed will need to raise rates. In addition, forecasts released on Wednesday show that since March, Federal Reserve policymakers have become more pessimistic about inflation, reflecting the sharp rise in inflation since the outbreak of the war. The median forecast shows that the PCE price index is expected to reach 3.6% by the end of the year, up from 2.7% in March; the core PCE price index is expected to rise by 3.3% year-on-year, compared to the March expectation of 2.7%; the year-end unemployment rate will reach 4.3%, unchanged from the May actual reading and below the 4.4% forecasted in March. This means that they are increasingly convinced that the labor market is not weakening and does not need to be supported by rate cuts. (FXStreet)
18:28
Fed Dot Plot Analysis: Two Officials Did Not Submit 2028 Dot Plot Forecasts
BlockBeats News, June 18th. The Federal Reserve's dot plot showed that out of 19 officials, only 18 submitted dot plot forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and only 17 submitted a dot plot forecast for 2028. Prior to the release of the Federal Reserve's dot plot, the market had already anticipated that the newly appointed Fed Chair Powell would not submit dot plot forecasts. It is currently unclear which Fed official has joined Powell's camp and did not submit a dot plot forecast for 2028. (FXStreet)
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