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CryptoQuant analyst nino_trade stated that long-term holders are transferring long-unused Bitcoin to spot trading platforms to allocate their positions. While pressure in the derivatives market has eased, selling pressure from long-term holders has become a new bearish factor.

BlockBeats News, June 29th, as Bitcoin continues to pull back, the market's discussion on the bottom of this cycle continues to heat up. From a comprehensive analysis of multiple parties, Bitcoin is gradually approaching the cycle bottom, but in the short term, we still need to wait for the market to complete further liquidation and bottoming out. According to Grayscale's latest research report, since hitting a high around $125,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has retraced over 50%, dropped below $60,000, which still belongs to a cyclical adjustment in a long-term bull market rather than a trend reversal. The report points out that this round of decline is mainly affected by the Federal Reserve's expected shift to hawkishness, the uncertain prospects of the "CLARITY Act" legislation, Strategy's leverage pressure, and concerns about quantum computing security. Grayscale believes that if the bill progresses smoothly, corporate deleveraging pressure eases, and the Fed temporarily delays rate hikes, Bitcoin may have already approached the bottom of this cycle; conversely, if regulatory progress is hindered, digital asset companies continue to deleverage, compounded by interest rate hike risks, there is still room for further downside in the market. However, compared to historical cycles, the institutional funding base in this round is more stable, and it is expected that the retracement level will be difficult to reproduce the previous bear market's approximately 80% decline. The long-term outlook remains optimistic for the development of public blockchain and digital assets. Market participants' judgment on the bottom range is also gradually converging. Yihan Li, the founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), stated that this round of decline has entered the third wave of pullback since October 2025. If following historical volatility patterns, July to August may become the final and most valuable positioning window of this bear market. He believes that the trend of the U.S. stock market, Strategy's balance sheet changes, and the Fed's attitude towards inflation and interest rates are still the core variables determining the market direction, while also being vigilant about black swan events that may occur at the end of the bear market. Based on historical decline calculations, if retracing 60% to 66% from the high of $126,000, corresponding to a price range of about $51,000 to $43,000, this range is still seen as a potential area of extreme pressure. Cryptocurrency analyst Murphy's analysis based on the "Post-Halving MVRV Z-Score" suggests that the overall volatility of this cycle has significantly converged, with both the high and low points weaker than historical bull and bear cycles. Currently, the corresponding MVRV range is about 1.12 to 1.30, indicating that Bitcoin's reasonable operating range is around $59,000 to $70,000. The probability of a short-term drop below $50,000 is relatively limited, and it is more likely to maintain an oscillating or weak rebound pattern until July 23rd. Murphy further points out that the truly noteworthy bottoming phase may begin from late July to late August, with September to October expected to see a more critical directional choice. He believes that Bitcoin below $60,000 already has a high long-term allocation value, but at the current stage, one should still be patient and wait for the market to complete the bottom formation.

Golden Ten Data reported on June 29 that data released by the European Central Bank on Monday shows that in May, eurozone corporate bank loan growth hit a three-year high, continuing its steady momentum over the past few months. The data reveals that the year-on-year growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations rose from 3.4% in April to 4.0% in May; household loan growth slightly increased from 3.0% in April to 3.1% in May; and broad money supply (M3) growth rose from 2.7% in April to 3.2% in May.