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05:26
Macquarie: After the US-Iran peace agreement, the market returns to normal, with focus shifting to the Federal Reserve decision
Macquarie's global foreign exchange and interest rate strategist Thierry Wizman stated that after the United States and Iran reached a temporary peace agreement and a memorandum of understanding, "normalcy" seems to have returned to the markets this week, which is most evident in oil prices.This return to normal means traders may shift their attention to central bank decisions this week, especially to the Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision since the new Chair Walsh took office on Wednesday. Currency market data indicates a high probability of rates remaining unchanged.Macquarie believes that the continued decline in oil prices is also a significant factor for the foreign exchange market.
05:20
Bank of New York Mellon: FOMC statement likely to reflect two-way risks, dot plot may remove rate cuts this year
(1) John Velis, Head of Americas Strategy at BNY Mellon, stated that the upcoming FOMC statement is expected to indicate a clear two-way risk for interest rates in the short term, which aligns with the tone of the three relatively hawkish dissenting votes at the end-April meeting. (2) This meeting will release a new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP, also known as the dot plot). (3) BNY Mellon expects that the median forecast for the end of 2026 will exclude the rate cut expectation that has persisted throughout several previous cycles.
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