Marvell Likely to Lift Fiscal 2029 AI Revenue Estimate by at Least $2 Billion Largely Due to Google Deal, RBC Says

11:51 AM EDT, 09/28/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Marvell Technology (MRVL) is expected to raise its fiscal 2029 artificial intelligence revenue forecast by at least $2 billion, driven mainly by its custom chip partnership with Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), RBC Capital Markets said in a note sent Monday. According to the brokerage, Marvell is already shipping custom Compute Express Link, or CXL, silicon to Google and models about $1 billion of revenue from that business in calendar 2028. RBC also expects revenue from additional custom inference silicon programs to begin ramping in late 2027, supporting an increase of at least $2 billion to Marvell's current fiscal 2029 AI revenue forecast of more than $10 billion, analysts including Srini Pajjuri said. In August, Marvell issued Google a warrant to buy up to nearly 59 million shares at $206.58 apiece, with most of it vesting on Google's purchases from Marvell through 2033, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. RBC said the arrangement implies roughly $120 billion in revenue potential over six years. Shares of Marvell were down 4.3% intraday Monday. The stock is up nearly 200% so far this year. At its Oct. 6 investor day, the semiconductor company is also likely to modestly raise its estimated fiscal 2028 forecast for its Microsoft (MSFT) custom XPU program, which RBC believes assumes $600 million to $800 million of revenue, though demand appears to be tracking well above that. That would leave "room for further upside potential in coming quarters," Pajjuri said. Marvell is also expected to issue calendar year 2030 targets for the data center total addressable market and market share, likely significantly higher than prior forecasts of a $94 billion market, as well as higher operating margins, according to RBC. The new goals could imply earnings per share potential of $15 to $20, the analysts said. "We are leaving our estimates unchanged but continue to like the story given (greater than) 50% revenue growth potential for the next (two to three) years," Pajjuri wrote. "In addition, (Marvell) is one of the very few (semiconductor) stocks in our coverage with revenue acceleration potential in (2027 and 2028 calendar years), which we think justifies premium valuation." RBC has an outperform rating on Marvell with a price target of $360. Other major AI chipmakers have also painted a positive revenue outlook amid still-strong demand for chips driven by massive AI adoption activities. In August, Nvidia (NVDA) said it expects fiscal 2028 revenue to grow about 70% year-over-year. Earlier this month, Broadcom (AVGO) said it anticipates its AI revenue will double in fiscal 2027 to approximately $115 billion. Broadcom's (AVGO) guidance that its artificial intelligence revenue will double in fiscal 2027 was slightly below Wall Street's consensus but the company is likely to "handily" top the projection, Truist Securities said in a note earlier this month. Price: 250.20, Change: -11.74, Percent Change: -4.48