20:30, 23:00, two big surprises in the world

Source: Wall Street Intelligence Circle

—Every piece of news can pull a candlestick.

At Friday's close, the global markets left a big question mark:

- U.S. stocks were mixed, with the Dow Jones Index down 0.56% and the S&P 500 Index down 0.11%;

- Gold prices fell slightly, closing below $4,800;

- U.S. Treasuries declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield back above 4.3%;

- Oil prices dropped further, U.S. crude closed at $95;

- The U.S. Dollar Index fell for the fifth consecutive trading day.

There were hardly any rising assets. This day became a "soul turning point." After Thursday's rise, there was no "second wave confirmation" on Friday. The true start of a trend usually begins with day one driven by sentiment (such as a ceasefire), day two with capital confirmation (continues to surge), and day three with trend formation—but this time, the second day did not continue to rise.

The market was rattled twice last night:

· First, after 20:30, there was a brief rally (dollar fell, everything else rose mode). Data released then showed that U.S. CPI for March rose 0.9% MoM (in line with expectations), and 3.3% YoY (slightly below the expected 3.4%). The inflation numbers are very high (a YoY of 3.3% and MoM of 0.9% would be “disastrous” inflation in any normal period, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target). However, because it was slightly below expectations, it was seen as good news—showing that controlling market expectations is key.

· A turning point came after 23:00, when Trump told the New York Post that if negotiations broke down, U.S. warships were reloading “the best ammunition” to launch new attacks. After the news broke, gold and U.S. stocks plunged. But this time, funds did not flood into oil and the dollar as before; instead, oil prices saw another drop.

People first pretended the world was returning to normal and were willing to accept some soothing words, but in reality, no one truly dared to believe it. The Strait of Hormuz hasn’t genuinely returned to normal, oil prices are still near $100 (well above pre-war), and severe volatility hasn’t disappeared. Some analysts believe the sell-off in crude oil is not justified and could very well reverse.

The market focus is now shifting to whether a ceasefire can hold and whether lasting peace can be achieved. Iran has demanded war reparations, which is likely an unacceptable condition for U.S. negotiators.

In the end, traders closed positions before the weekend to remain neutral. Anything can happen over the weekend!