AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens on bullish technical momentum above 100-day EMA
The AUD/JPY cross attracts some buyers to near 112.20 during the early European session on Friday. The Australian Dollar strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Australian central bank raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10% at its March meeting on Tuesday. This marks the second consecutive rate hike of the year, following a 25 bps increase in February.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock said during the press conference that prices remained too high and the board was worried about second-round effects from higher energy costs, triggered by the Middle East conflict.
On the other hand, escalating tensions in the US-Israeli war with Iran could drive traders back to the JPY as a traditional safe-haven asset. The US-Israeli war with Iran has entered its third week with no sign of ending. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed to show “ZERO restraint” if the country’s energy infrastructure were hit again, per Bloomberg.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is bullish as price extends its advance well above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 106.60, confirming a firmly established uptrend. The latest candles hold in the upper half of the Bollinger Band envelope, with the middle band around 111.58 acting as a dynamic pivot, reflecting sustained upside pressure rather than extreme overextension. RSI at 57.00 has eased from prior overbought territory above 70, indicating that momentum remains positive but less stretched, which favors trend continuation over an imminent reversal.
Immediate support emerges at the Bollinger middle band at 111.58, with a break below exposing the psychological 111.00 area, while deeper downside would target the lower band support now near 109.52. On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the recent upper Bollinger Band peak around 113.65, followed by the 114.00 region as the next upside objective if bulls regain control. As long as daily closes hold above 111.58, the technical structure favors buying dips within the prevailing uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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