Golden Ten Data Summary: Institutions Warn of Persistent Tariff Uncertainty in 2026, Court Rulings Unlikely to Reverse the Situation
2. Citi: At this stage, tariffs are unlikely to cause a serious shock to global growth or inflation, and the risk of economic recession is low.
3. BNP Paribas: Tariff increases, a more accommodative fiscal stance, and stricter immigration policies could all exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US economy.
4. BCA Research: The market overestimates the likelihood of the US Supreme Court overturning import tariffs. US tariff revenues are expected to increase in 2026.
5. ABN AMRO: The Supreme Court's ruling will not be a turning point. Even if the court rules these tariffs illegal, the Trump administration still has various alternatives.
6. Lazard Asset Management: Tariff increases could push up US inflation in the first half of 2026, while stricter immigration enforcement would reduce labor supply and suppress GDP growth.
7. Columbia Threadneedle: Although some economists believe tariffs are a one-time price adjustment, they are more likely to cause sustained inflationary pressure in 2026.
8. Capital Economics: Although the Supreme Court may overturn parts of the Trump tariffs, the government's reliance on tariff revenue is deepening, and authorities will seek to maintain trade barriers.
9. Barclays Private Bank: US reciprocal tariffs bring in nearly $300 billions in revenue annually. If a Supreme Court ruling causes the government to lose this pillar, fiscal policy will have to adjust.
10. Macquarie Bank: There is expected to be a lag of nine to eighteen months between the announcement of tariffs and their economic impact, meaning that tariffs imposed this year may have the most significant economic effect in the first half of 2026.
11. Lombard Odier: The impact of tariffs will continue to be significant in 2026, raising costs for US consumers. Even if the Supreme Court rules some current US tariffs invalid, the government is expected to quickly reimpose them under other legal grounds.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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