Crypto Academy Member: October 26 – Four moving averages collectively suppressing Ethereum (ETH). Is runner-up about to repeat the halving scenario?
To put it bluntly, 90% of people in this market are here to give away their money. Why? Because they mistake their feelings for strategy and stubbornness for conviction. I'm not writing this to show off. I've been liquidated, held onto losing trades, and suffered sleepless nights myself. I know that pain, which is why I repeatedly emphasize stop-losses, position sizing, and not chasing trades. K lines don't lie; it's your desires that deceive you. Tonight's analysis is only about levels and risks, not sentiment.
The daily K line basically shows a doji. The key is the moving averages: the current price has fallen below four moving averages, with only EMA120 at 2336 just below offering support. This means the mid-term trend has weakened. The bulls dropped all the way from the 2806 high, and every rebound is pushed back down by the moving averages. On MACD, the green bars are still expanding, showing that the downward momentum hasn't been fully released. BOLL's lower band at 2299 is the next line of defense; breaking below 2299 means it's going to test the previous low. On the daily K line, bears are in control, and rebounds are only opportunities for bears to add positions.
The four-hour K line looks a bit better than the daily. The price is now at 2357, right between the lower band at 2317 and the middle band at 2371. EMA15 is at 2363 just above, and EMA30 at 2368 is also pressing down, meaning the short-term rebound has reached a dense convergence of moving averages. The good news is that the MACD green bars are narrowing and DIF and DEA are about to form a bullish crossover, showing the downward momentum is fading. The bad news: EMA60 at 2411 and EMA90 at 2438 are lined up descending—mid-term bearish moving averages haven't changed. TD Sequential is at 2, with no signal yet. The four-hour chart is just an oversold rebound, not a reversal, and if 2371 (the middle band) can't be broken, the rebound ends.
Short-term reference:
Northbound: Resistance at 2280 to 2240, stop loss 30 points, target 2320 to 2380
Southbound: Stalled at 2370 to 2400, stop loss 30 points, target 2320 to 2270
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