Analyst Says Something Strange Is Happening With XRP Right Now

Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto (@Steph_iscrypto) has identified a technical pattern on the XRP weekly chart. The pattern has a consistent historical track record, and it is approaching a potential confirmation point that carries serious price consequences.

The RSI Setup

The signal centers on the Relative Strength Index on XRP’s weekly timeframe. Steph tracks two components: the RSI line itself and its moving average, or signal line.

When the RSI line crosses below the moving average, the signal triggers. That cross has preceded significant XRP drawdowns every time it has occurred since the bear market bottom of June 2022.

The signal, commonly known as a bearish cross, has not fully played out yet. However, Steph states the situation is “definitely not a good look,” and the current setup is getting very close.

A Consistent Track Record

The historical data is notable. The first occurrence came between October 31 and November 7, 2022. XRP was trading between $0.47 and $0.50. A 41% drop followed over the next 10 weeks.

May 2023 produced a smaller decline of 12%, lasting just one week. After that, the drawdowns grew. Subsequent signals produced declines of 17%, 39%, 26%, 39%, and 24% respectively. The largest occurred on January 27 in a bull market environment, producing a 49% decline.

Another signal on August 18, 2025, preceded a 64% drop. This pulled XRP down significantly from its all-time high of $3.65 which it reached the previous month. The pattern Steph highlights is that bull market signals produce much larger drawdowns than those during bear market or transitional periods.

What Steph Expects Now

At the time of the video, XRP required a green weekly close to prevent the signal from confirming. Steph says, “This week needs to turn out to be a green week. Otherwise it will unfortunately get confirmed.”

If confirmation occurs, Steph lays out two potential outcomes. A minimum pullback of 12% would bring XRP to approximately $1.13 to $1.14. A deeper drawdown, consistent with the historical range between 2022 and 2024, would target $0.78 to $0.80.

The Level That Changes the Outlook

Steph holds a short-term bearish position unless price action proves otherwise. The condition for a reversal is clear. He states, “For me to absolutely confirm a huge price reversal, I still need to see that break above at least the $1.50 region with a weekly close.”