Solana Price Faces New Risk Despite Growing On-Chain Adoption

Solana (SOL) price trades near $106 after a roughly 15% pullback from its late-September high. The daily chart now shows a possible head-and-shoulders pattern that could put $80 in play. The weekly chart and on-chain data look more mixed. Fund investors are exiting through ETFs, while asset managers and individual users keep building on the network. Daily Chart of Solana Price Flashes a Head-and-Shoulders Risk Solanas daily chart still prints higher highs and higher lows. Yet a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern may be forming within that uptrend. The left shoulder formed near $111 in late August. The head peaked near $125 in late September, after sellers rejected the price at the $120 resistance zone. The right shoulder could take shape at the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $115. Contracting volume since August supports the bearish reading. A daily close below the neckline near $100 would confirm the pattern. The measured move points to the $80 support zone, about 25% below the current price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 44 and is rising. However, the bounce may only be a retest of the RSI downtrend that began in August. SOL daily chart. Source: TradingView Weekly Chart Keeps the Bullish Case Alive One market analyst sees a possible cup-and-handle pattern, a classic bullish reversal formation. Key resistance sits between $125 and $130. A confirmed breakout above that zone could open a path toward $215 to $220, roughly 65% higher. In that scenario, the current pullback would form the handle. A move above $130 would also invalidate the daily head-and-shoulders. ETF Investors Head for the Exit Glassnode data shows the money behind both recent rallies. US spot SOL ETF inflows topped 200,000 SOL per day on a 7-day average. These waves came in late August and late September, matching the left shoulder and head. The flow reversed after the early October rejection. The 7-day average has since dropped to around minus 40,000 SOL per day. That is roughly $4.2 million, the deepest reading of 2026. Solana price and US spot SOL ETF net flows, 7-day average. Source: Glassnode Institutions and Individuals Stay On-Chain Tokenized real-world assets (RWA) on Solana, excluding stablecoins, total about $4.4 billion. That figure has roughly doubled since early May. It sits just below its late-September peak despite SOLs correction. BlackRock and State Street are among the issuers. These assets are dollar-denominated, so their value reflects network usage rather than demand for SOL. Solana price context with tokenized RWA total value on Solana / Source: rwa.xyz Individual adoption is growing as well. Solana says 1.4 million addresses now hold tokenized stocks on the network. Solana Price Levels That Could Decide the Next Move A daily close below $100 would favor the bears and the $80 target. A sustained move above $115 would weaken the head-and-shoulders. A weekly breakout above $130 would hand control to the bulls. The Alpenglow upgrade, scheduled for Oct. 21, could act as a near-term catalyst. Developers expect it to cut transaction finality to around 150 milliseconds. ETF flows point one way, and on-chain adoption points the other. Which signal carries more weight is for each reader to judge against these levels.