October 1st Finance Morning Brief: Seven-day proposal disputes unresolved, Iran raises alert level at 46 facilities, gold bulls lose momentum, oil prices surge in September

Huitong Net, October 1— In the early Asian session on October 1, spot gold traded near $4,153.35/oz. Gold prices fell on Wednesday, and dropped more than 6% in September, as the impact of rising energy prices outweighed the support from US inflation data coming in below expectations.

In the early Asian session on Thursday (Beijing Time, October 1), spot gold traded near $4,153.35/oz. Gold prices fell on Wednesday, and dropped more than 6% in September, as the impact of rising energy prices outweighed the support from US inflation data coming in below expectations. The US-Iran stalemate continues, oil prices rose in September, with Brent crude up nearly 8% and US crude up more than 4%. Although Middle Eastern crude exports have somewhat resumed, Iran has raised the alert level for 46 infrastructure sites, while the Iranian Foreign Minister received feedback from the US in Doha. The two sides still have disagreements over the seven-day proposal. US crude is currently trading near $90.20/barrel.

Focuses of the Day

Stock Market

US stocks closed mixed on Wednesday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.86% to 50,906.05 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,651.54; the Nasdaq gained 0.24% to 26,861.06. For the month, the S&P 500 fell 0.45%, the Nasdaq rose 1.86%, the Dow fell 4.29%. The Dow ended its five-month win streak, and the S&P 500 recorded its third monthly decline in four months. The Nasdaq rose for the second consecutive month; both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted gains for the second consecutive quarter—fifth in six quarters—while the Dow posted its second quarterly decline in three quarters.

Below-forecast inflation data weakened market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October. The US Department of Commerce reported that the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.4% year-on-year, lower than economists' estimate of 3.7%.

Other data showed the final annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Q2 was revised up to 2.2%, benefiting from strong consumer spending and investments related to AI infrastructure. The US-Iran conflict caused crude oil and diesel prices to rise, intensifying inflation concerns and pushing up Treasury yields. Fed officials said, after a 25-basis-point hike this month, further hikes may be needed if price pressures do not ease.

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that markets expect the probability of at least a 25bps rate hike in October to drop to about 37%, from about 51% the previous trading day and nearly 71% a week ago. Analysts also pointed out that the adjustment to PCE calculation by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is also one reason for the lower reading.

Ameriprise Financial Chief Market Strategist Anthony Saglimbene said the market is focusing on whether the economy can continue to grow and withstand higher rates. If rates remain high for longer, they could hurt the bond sector and limit credit. If investors believe these conditions will drag down economic growth or corporate profits, markets will respond negatively and quickly.

Most mega-cap and growth stocks rose slightly; Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia all rose, leading the S&P 500 technology sector up by 0.6%, the best performing sector of the day, though nine of the 11 major sectors finished lower.

The ADP National Employment Report showed 90,000 new private payroll jobs in September, with August revised down to 36,000. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she is committed to lowering inflation without harming the labor market.

Gold Market

Spot gold fell 0.59% on Wednesday, settling at $4,157.02/oz. Weekly it declined 3.03%, and on the month, it was down 6.55%, as the impact of higher energy prices outweighed the support from US inflation data coming in below expectations. This data reduced market expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike.



Independent precious metals trader Tai Wong said that as energy prices rise and Treasury yields give back gains, precious metals are under pressure again. Despite the probability of an October rate hike dropping sharply after core PCE data came in below expectations, it was still a disappointing day for gold.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis said Wednesday that the August PCE price index rose 0.3%, with the July increase revised down to 0.1%; August core PCE price index was up 3.0% year-on-year, with July revised down to 3.0%. According to CME’s FedWatch, the financial markets currently believe the probability of a Fed October hike is about 39%, down from about 45% before the PCE data release. The probability of a rate hike in December stands at 90%.

After the data release, the US dollar pulled back but still recorded a monthly gain, making US dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers. Meanwhile, as US-Iran talks aimed at ending the Iran war stalled, oil prices rose and saw a significant monthly gain. The lack of progress in talks stoked market concerns about persistently high energy prices, which could cause inflation to persist longer and prompt further tightening of monetary policy.

Spot silver fell 1.77% to $60.37/oz, platinum fell 0.4% to $1,699.40/oz, and palladium fell 1.5% to $1,204.53/oz—all three precious metals posted monthly losses.

Oil Market

Oil prices rose on Wednesday: US crude up 1.57% to settle at $90.34/barrel, Brent up 2.4% to $97.90/barrel, as US-Iran peace talks came to a standstill and the US fuel market tightened.



Qatar said Tuesday it hopes shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington can make a breakthrough; however, former US President Trump denied reports from Axios and CNN. The two media outlets quoted US officials saying that Trump was willing to ease sanctions on Iran and unfreeze Iranian funds in exchange for "specific" actions by Tehran on its nuclear program.

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia resumed loading oil tankers at the Red Sea port of Yanbu after the East-West pipeline was brought back online. In a report on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs said it estimates that as September exports doubled, Gulf oil exports have recovered last week to 23.3 million barrels per day, equivalent to the 2025 average.

JPMorgan estimates the 10-day average of total oil exports over the past five days stayed at 20.5 million barrels per day, or 89% of the 2025 level. Two sources said the OPEC+ alliance may keep its November production targets unchanged when member states meet Sunday.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial analysts in Japan said that the restoration of crude supply should ease supply-driven price pressures, though persistent shortages of refined products and high freight costs may keep the overall energy market tight.

According to two sources, the White House has urged the EU to use emergency diesel reserves to curb global prices.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed US gasoline inventories fell 1.7 million barrels last week to 204.4 million barrels; distillate stocks (including diesel and heating oil) fell 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million barrels; US crude inventories increased 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels.

Forex Market

The dollar index rose on Wednesday, closing at 101.45, up over 2% for the month. Inflation data came in lower than expected. John Velis, FX and macro strategist at BNY Mellon, said it was unclear whether the lower reading was due to the revised PCE data itself or other factors. The data initially pushed Treasury prices up, yields down, and the dollar weaker. We saw some strong GDP data, the yield curve steepened on the long end while the short end stayed low, so the curve got steeper: the two-year Treasury yield’s drop reflects weaker expectations for an October rate hike, and the dollar also fell.



US Commerce Department data showed the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, rose 0.3% in August. CME’s FedWatch indicates traders currently estimate a 37% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, down from 70% a week ago. Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said that after New York Fed President Williams questioned the urgency for another hike, Wednesday's softer PCE report prompted markets to sharply scale back expectations for consecutive Fed hikes. This repricing is pulling down Treasury yields, shrinking the dollar’s yield advantage, and provided a clear fundamental catalyst for the latest round of dollar selling.

The dollar was flat at 157.29 yen; the dollar rose 0.26% vs. the Swiss franc to 0.83575 francs, up for the second straight month in September; the pound rose 0.26% vs. the dollar to $1.3265, but fell for the month, ending a two-month win streak.

International News

According to CME "FedWatch": There is a 61.8% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% in October, and a 38.2% probability of a 25bps hike. By December, the probability of rates remaining unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% is 13.3%, with a cumulative 25bps hike at 56.7%, and a cumulative 50bps hike at 30%.



An official briefed on the talks said that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and his team met with the Qatari mediator in Doha on Tuesday night. Araghchi received American feedback on the seven-day proposal, which will be discussed in Tehran on Wednesday. The document being negotiated sets out a seven-day plan aimed at building trust and returning to an enhanced version of the MOU signed by the US and Iran in June. The major difference between the US and Iran is on the sequencing of measures in the seven-day plan, not on the substantive content.



On September 30, the Russian government announced it would extend the ban on direct diesel, marine fuel, and gas oil exports by fuel producers from Russia to October 31, due to ongoing regional conflict and supply shortages impacting the global energy market. The statement from the Russian cabinet said the decision aims to stabilize the domestic fuel market, especially as harvest season raises locomotive fuel demand and worsens supply tightness. (Xinhua News Agency)



Vessel tracking firm Kpler’s latest report, released on September 28, shows that major Middle Eastern oil producers saw a significant rebound in crude exports in September. Data show that in September, daily oil exports from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran averaged around 16.33 million barrels, about 3.2 million barrels lower than the roughly 19.51 million barrels per day before the Iran conflict erupted in February. Based on this, Kpler estimates that Middle Eastern crude exports in September have recovered to about 80% of pre-war levels. (CCTV International News)



According to the Ministry of Transport, total passenger travel nationwide is expected to reach 2.13 billion during the National Day holiday. The Capital Airport Operations Control Center reports that the travel peak will fall on October 1 and 7, with single-day passenger flow exceeding 245,000. Top domestic destinations include Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, and Guiyang, while international hotspots are Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok, and Bali. Currently, international air ticket bookings are up 22.5% year-on-year, and civil aviation passenger volume is expected to set a new seasonal record. (CCTV Finance)



As the world’s top copper supplier, Chile’s August copper output marked its worst monthly performance in more than 15 years. This has worsened the country's recessionary trend and explains why global supplies remain tight and copper prices are repeatedly hitting new highs. The drop in August production added to a tough year for Chile's mining industry. Following storms that hit several northern mines in July, severe winter weather and port disruptions in August again affected mine operations. These disruptions further exacerbate other broad challenges, including falling ore grades and operational setbacks and accidents at some of the country’s largest mines.



According to Al Arabiya TV, to prepare for possible attacks on key infrastructure, Iran’s Civil Defense is raising the readiness level for 46 sites.



According to a draft proposal from the European Commission, the EU will open its large economic system to countries awaiting entry, provided these countries agree to stand with the EU in facing hostile states and competing industries. The draft proposal notes that during their accession process, candidate countries (some waiting for decades) will get unprecedented “gradual integration” into the single market, including smoother trade relations and access to research projects. An assessment document on offering “pre-accession” benefits notes: “The single market is the primary tool for economic convergence.”

Domestic News

According to State Grid on September 30, the popularity of self-driving trips in new energy vehicles is rising during the National Day holiday. According to the smart car networking platform, charging demand is set to peak on October 1, with high-demand hours from 7:00 to 20:00 (UTC+8). October 5 and 6 will see peak return traffic, with highway charging demand remaining high—October 5 from 11:00 to 21:00 (UTC+8), and October 6 from 10:00 to 22:00 (UTC+8). By region, highway charging in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, and Fujian is expected to hit record highs. On highways, the busiest new energy charging stations will be on the Changshen, Shenhai, and Hukun expressways. (CCTV Finance)



The People’s Bank of China announced: On October 8, 2026, the PBOC will conduct a 1.2 trillion yuan outright reverse repo operation using fixed amount, interest rate bidding, and multiple price selection, with a term of 3 months (89 days).