Geopolitical risks continue to intensify, international crude oil prices rise again

⑴ International crude oil prices climbed above $94 per barrel on Thursday, extending the previous trading day's 1.6% rally. Heightened tensions in the Middle East have dampened market expectations for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. ⑵ Senior Iranian officials have issued warnings that if the US or Israel launches further military strikes, the conflict could expand beyond the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. ⑶ The Iranian president has expressed willingness to restart negotiations related to the conflict but will not engage in dialogue under external threats; as long as relevant US sanctions and blockade measures remain in place, Iran will impose controls on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. ⑷ There are clear differences between the US and Iran on key issues such as energy routes, and the crude oil market remains highly sensitive to any further escalation of the situation. Geopolitical risk premiums continue to support oil prices.