U.S. diesel price surpasses $6 for the first time, crushing traditional freight, but paving a "golden runway" for Tesla (TSLA.US) Semi?

According to Zhitong Finance APP, U.S. diesel prices have surged past $6 per gallon for the first time in history, delivering a heavy blow to the freight industry already struggling with soaring costs, but also thrusting Tesla (TSLA.US) Semi electric trucks and autonomous truck operations into the spotlight on capital markets. In its latest research report, Morgan Stanley pointed out that Tesla is becoming a “credible emerging contender” in autonomous trucking, significantly raising its bull-case valuation for Tesla’s autonomous trucking business.

According to the latest data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) on Friday, the national average diesel price reached $6.0556 per gallon; in California, it was as high as $7.9827 per gallon. AAA noted that the cost for truckers and farmers to fill up their tanks is about 63% higher than the same period last year.

Since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran at the end of February, diesel prices have soared nearly 60%. The war has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which, before the conflict, accounted for about one-fifth of global oil transport.

Diesel is a key energy source for keeping the global supply chain running. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan stated bluntly on social media: “Record-high diesel prices may reignite inflation throughout the entire supply chain, upstream and downstream. Every truck, every delivery, every package, every trip to buy groceries is now more expensive.”

This has once again plunged freight demand into trouble, just as it was beginning to improve following the difficult post-pandemic period. Currently, the capital market has already reacted—SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN.US) is down about 7% in the past month, while trucking companies like XPO (XPO.US), Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL.US), and FedEx Freight (FDXF.US) have all dropped more than 10%.

Has a “golden runway” been paved for Tesla Semi?

Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco noted in a research report that the “entry of Tesla Semi” is reshaping profit margins for cargo carriers.

Morgan Stanley emphasized that Semi’s competitiveness lies not just in the fuel cost advantage of electrification but also in the operational restructuring brought by autonomous driving technology. Tesla’s competitive edge is its position as a “physical AI” leader—generating substantial recurring revenue through software subscription models, rather than relying solely on hardware sales.

The comparative model constructed in the report is striking: human-driven electric trucks cost $2.67 per mile, but for autonomous electric trucks, the cost drops to $2.13 per mile—a decline of 20%. Labor costs ($1.21/mile) are completely eliminated under autonomous operation. In terms of utilization, human-driven trucks log about 92,400 effective miles per year, while autonomous trucks reach 215,210 miles, a 2.33-fold increase, primarily because autonomous operation allows for about 22 hours of driving a day, versus just 11 hours for human drivers due to regulations.

Overall, after deducting operational expenses, annual profit per autonomous truck leaps from $37,000 to $202,000, with a profit margin of 29%, a significant improvement over the 11% posted by human-driven operations.

Morgan Stanley estimates that Tesla may charge $0.85 to $1.00 per mile for autonomous driving software subscriptions for the Semi. Assuming 18,000 miles driven per month, each Semi could generate roughly $12,000 to $18,000 in software revenue monthly. As a comparison, current FSD subscription fees for consumer vehicles are only about $100 per month.

Further calculations show that if Tesla deploys 82,000 Semi trucks on the road by 2040—seizing 13.5% of the autonomous trucking potential market—that could yield $1.7 billion in software revenue and around $750 million in additional EBIT. Notably, this forecast does not include revenue from vehicle sales or charging infrastructure.

This logic is already being validated by Tesla’s Robotaxi business. On September 3, Tesla officially launched its steering wheel- and pedal-free Cybercab autonomous taxi in Austin, Texas, announcing that it is already offering public rides in some areas of Austin. Tesla AI lead Ashok Elluswamy confirmed that once the next planned technology is completed in FSD v15, 24/7 operations will go live “around next month.” At that point, Robotaxi service hours will expand from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. currently, to all-day operation.

At present, Tesla has about 420 Robotaxi vehicles registered in Texas, of which about 45 are Cybercabs, the rest being Model Y units. Tesla has extended Robotaxi service to six cities: Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa.

Based on this, Morgan Stanley raised its bull-case valuation for Tesla Network Services by $20 per share to $276, lifting the overall bull-case target price from $820 to $840 per share—representing over 125% upside from current levels. The base case target price remains at $400, with a rating of “Equal-weight.” Analyzing the Semi truck opportunity alone, Percoco estimates it to be worth $20 per share, or about $80 billion in market value.

Tesla’s commercial rollout of the Semi is reportedly accelerating. On April 30, 2026, the first mass-production Semi rolled off the dedicated line at the Nevada Gigafactory, nine years after the vehicle was initially unveiled in 2017.

The Nevada Semi dedicated facility covers about 158,000 square meters, with a designed annual capacity of 50,000 units. In 2026, it is expected to deliver 5,000 to 15,000 vehicles—a capacity already on par with traditional truckmakers like Kenworth and Peterbilt’s electric truck offerings.

Order activity is also heating up. Swedish freight tech firm Einride (ENRD.US) announced the purchase of 500 Tesla Semis, the largest known single order to date, with initial deliveries starting in September and the rest phased into operation over 24 months. Previously, electric truck operator WattEV ordered 370 Semis for use in California port drayage. Musk stated on the Q1 2026 earnings call that the Semi adopts a brand new supply chain and initial production will be “very slow,” but expects exponential growth between the end of this year and next year.

The traditional trucking sector faces a valuation reset

The Morgan Stanley report also issued a warning to the traditional trucking sector. The long-term competitive threat of the Semi covers a lengthy list of stocks including Knight-Swift (KNX.US), Werner Enterprises (WERN.US), ArcBest (ARCB.US), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT.US), Schneider National (SNDR.US), TFI International (TFII.US), Ryder System (R.US), Heartland Express (HTLD.US), Marten Transport (MRTN.US), and Landstar System (LSTR.US).

Morgan Stanley stated that the potential market for autonomous trucks is enormous, expected to reach $601 billion in the U.S. market alone by 2026 and exceed $1 trillion by 2041. For traditional fleet operators who still rely on manual driving and diesel engines, this presents both an efficiency revolution opportunity and the risk of business model disruption.

However, the logic behind Tesla’s pricing on capital markets is undergoing a profound shift. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, Tesla’s stock has fallen about 10%, underperforming the S&P 500 by roughly 20 percentage points. Despite higher fuel costs theoretically making EVs more attractive, investors do not appear to be focusing on the automotive segment right now. Instead, attention is turning to AI-related opportunities, such as autonomous vehicles—as Morgan Stanley emphasized.