Everbright Futures 0831 Gold Commentary: Waller's Hawkish Remarks Drive Gold Prices Downward

On August 28, COMEX gold plunged sharply during trading, closing at $4,504.1/oz, with a drop of 3.43%. The domestic SHFE gold night session first rose then fell, breaking downwards, closing at 967.38 yuan/g, a decline of 2.65%.

On the macro front, the US August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.4, the lowest level since January this year, hitting a seven-month low. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan August Consumer Sentiment Index dropped for the first time in three months, with consumer concerns over worsening business conditions and rising inflation intensifying. According to Wallstreet News, Boston Fed President Collins stated that if inflation improvements do not persist, further tightening of policy soon would be appropriate, and inflation faces upside risks from supply shocks and stronger-than-expected economic activity. AI infrastructure appears to be pushing up core goods inflation.

On the geopolitical front, major progress was reported in US-Iran negotiations, with some media claiming consensus was reached on ceasefire agreement terms, including free passage in the Strait of Hormuz. Macroeconomic sentiment warmed, and gold maintained a relatively strong trend. However, short-term dynamics need attention: on the 28th, Fed Chair Waller delivered his first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. If a clear anti-inflation signal is sent, it may trigger a re-pricing of September rate hike expectations, putting short-term gold price under pressure. Pay attention to guidance from US employment data this week.

Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute

Written by: Shi Yueming

Professional Qualification: F03097365

Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0017563

Editor: Zhu Henan