Canada: Economic risks and sector strains – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) strategists analyze escalating trade tensions between Canada and the United States (US) and their impact on both economies. They note that baseline economic outlook forecasts remain stable for the US and Canada, but highlight that specific sectors, regions and cross-border supply chains, especially autos, face significant strain as tariffs rise and broaden.

Tariffs threaten sectors and supply chains

"Escalating trade tensions between Canada and the United States and tariff hikes on both sides of the border are once again clouding the economic outlook."

"While there is still much that we don’t know with U.S. Section 338 tariffs now in place and counter measures from Canada, we address the most pressing questions we receive about the economic impact from the trade conflict."

"Baseline economic outlooks forecasts remain stable for both the U.S. and Canada, but specific sectors and regions on both sides of the border will be significantly impacted."

"Economic costs would rise if tariffs continue to escalate and broaden across products."

"Cross-border supply chain integration increases the cost of potential future tariffs—particularly in the auto sector."

"Canada is more reliant on trade with the U.S. than the other way around, but specific sectors and states will be impacted more by the measures than others."

"Canadian travel spending has already adjusted dramatically to avoid U.S. trips."

"Retaliatory tariff measures are designed to change consumer business/buying behavior to reduce the amount of tariffs that are ultimately paid."