Bernstein praises Circle’s Q2 results, counters bearish concerns with Arc and partnership upside
Circle just posted its Q2 2026 earnings, and Bernstein’s takeaway is essentially: the bears are looking at the wrong spreadsheet.
The Wall Street research firm is maintaining its Outperform rating on CRCL, arguing that Circle’s partnerships, regulatory approvals, and its upcoming Arc launch create revenue streams that current consensus estimates simply aren’t capturing.
The numbers behind the optimism
Circle reported total revenue and reserve income of $701 million for Q2 2026, a 7% year-over-year increase.
USDC circulation hit $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year. The real jaw-dropper sits in the transaction data: onchain volume surged to $14.8 trillion, a 151% year-over-year increase.
The gap between circulation growth (19%) and transaction volume growth (151%) tells you that velocity is accelerating dramatically, meaning each dollar of USDC in circulation is turning over far more frequently than it did a year ago.
Arc changes the math
The Arc public mainnet is scheduled to launch on September 16, 2026, and the founding validator set includes BlackRock, DTCC, ICE, Mastercard, and Visa.
Bernstein’s price targets on CRCL range from $140 to $230.
Regulatory moat deepens
Circle picked up a national trust bank charter approved by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). This places Circle in a fundamentally different regulatory category than most of its stablecoin competitors, giving it direct access to the US banking system’s rails without relying on banking partners.
What this means for investors
The 151% surge in onchain transaction volume is the most underappreciated data point in the earnings release.
USDC’s 19% circulation growth trails the broader stablecoin market’s expansion, suggesting that competitors, particularly Tether, continue to gain ground in absolute terms.
Investors watching this space should track three things over the next quarter: USDC circulation trends relative to competitors, Arc mainnet launch execution in September, and whether Circle begins disclosing transaction-based revenue as a separate line item.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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