XRP death cross warning puts $1.20 resistance in focus

XRP traded near $1.13 on July 5, according to crypto.news market data. The token was down 1.04% over 24 hours but remained up 7.79% over seven days. Its market cap stood near $70.26 billion, while 24-hour volume was about $1.67 billion.

The price remains close to a key technical zone after a short recovery from the $1 area. XRP has moved back above short-term support, but it has not reclaimed the higher resistance area near $1.20.

A post from ChartNerd warned that XRP is close to printing a weekly 20 EMA and 200-week SMA death cross. The analyst said the 200-week SMA near $1.20 may turn from a support floor into a supply ceiling.

That level now matters because price remains below it. A weekly close above $1.20 would weaken the bearish case. Failure to reclaim it may keep sellers active during future rallies.

Weekly death cross keeps traders cautious

A death cross happens when a shorter moving average falls below a longer moving average. In this case, the focus is on the weekly 20 EMA and the 200-week SMA.

The signal does not confirm an instant drop by itself. It shows that medium-term momentum has weakened against the long-term trend. Traders often watch how price reacts after the cross appears.

ChartNerd said “the 200-week SMA ($1.20) now has the potential to flip from a historical support floor into a supply ceiling.” The analyst added that XRP must reclaim that area to reject the bearish setup.

The analyst also pointed to two past examples. In 2022, XRP formed a bottom shortly after a similar signal. In the 2018 to 2020 bear market, the final low came months later after repeated failures near the 200-week SMA.

Daily chart shows short-term recovery

The XRP/USDT daily chart still shows a broader downtrend, with lower highs from May into late June. The token recently bounced from the lower Bollinger Band near $1 and moved back above the middle band.

The latest candle is red near $1.1325, showing a pullback after the rebound. Price remains between the middle Bollinger Band near $1.1064 and the upper band near $1.2094.

Holding above $1.1064 keeps the short-term recovery alive. A drop below that level would weaken the bounce and bring the $1.00 to $1.03 area back into focus.

The MACD has improved, with the MACD line above the signal line and a positive histogram. Still, both lines remain below zero. That means momentum is recovering, but the wider trend has not fully turned.

Source: TradingView

Crypto.news data keeps $1.20 in focus

Crypto.news reported on July 3 that XRP climbed to a three-day high after Ripple’s European expansion and a fresh Supertrend buy signal. The report said XRP moved from around $1.02 on July 1 to an intraday high near $1.11.

A separate crypto.news analysis said XRP needed to reclaim $1.20 to $1.25 to support a stronger rebound. It also placed $1.10 as a key support level and warned that wider weakness could bring $0.90 and $0.80 back into view.

The same report said a monthly close above $1.40 would help confirm a stronger double-bottom case. Until then, XRP remains in a cautious zone, even after the recent rebound.

At press time, traders are watching three levels. XRP must hold $1.10 to protect the short-term bounce, reclaim $1.20 to weaken the death cross warning, and clear $1.40 to improve the larger structure.