(Kitco News) - Gold prices are trading at session highs after the latest data showed a mixed picture for U.S. consumer sentiment this month.
The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in June, below economists’ consensus forecast for a 94.2 reading but above the downwardly revised 90.6 print from May, the Conference Board announced on Tuesday.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 3.0 points to 116.4. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose by 3.0 points to 74.4. The survey period was June 1–23, encompassing an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
Gold prices set fresh session highs in the wake of the 10 am ET data release, with spot gold last trading at $4,047.71 per ounce at the time of writing for a gain of 0.71% on the daily chart.
"Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears," said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board. "Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month. However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were 'hard to get' rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%). Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now. This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes."
The Present Situation Index saw a decline in June. “Net views of current business conditions—the share saying conditions are "good" versus "bad"—improved by 1 ppt to +3.5%,” the report noted. “However, perceptions of current employment conditions declined, with the labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" minus the share saying jobs are "hard to get"—declining by 2.6 ppts to just +2.4%. Notably, the percentage of consumers saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 22.5%, a five-and-a-half-year high (January 2021, 22.8%).”
Meanwhile, the Expectations Index improved in June, with two of its three components—net expectations for business and expected household income six months from now both improving. Net expectations for labor market conditions were unchanged.
Among age groups, confidence for consumers under age 35 remained the highest, but confidence for all age groups trended downward on a six-month moving average basis. “By income, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence was mixed or little changed across all categories,” the report noted. “By generation, confidence fell the most for the Silent Generation but was stable or lower for others on a six-month moving average basis. By political affiliation, confidence among Independents and Democrats rose while Republicans were somewhat less positive on a month-over-month basis.”
“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism," Peterson added. "References to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices remained elevated. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January, and references to health/insurance and war edged higher.”
