Regarding lithium carbonate, pay attention to where the upper limit is.

Over a month ago, I published an article stating, “If the predictions from UBS, CITIC, and Goldman Sachs are all correct, the price of lithium carbonate will rise to 250,000 RMB/ton in June 2026, and then begin to fall. Therefore, it is perfectly reasonable and normal for lithium mining stock prices to fall two months in advance.” Over the past month, the price of lithium carbonate has not risen as predicted by UBS, CITIC, and Goldman Sachs, but has instead declined continuously. Naturally, the stock prices have also fallen.

On June 5, the lithium carbonate contract price rebounded briefly, which drove a rebound in related stocks. Someone asked me: “Do lithium mining stocks still have a chance in the second half of the year?” My response was: “No, even if there is a rebound, it is just a chance to exit.”

On June 18, the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources issued a preliminary land approval and site selection administrative permit, allowing the reopening of the Yifeng County Zhenkouli–Fengxin County Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi Province (previously ceased production on August 9, 2025, due to mining license expiration). This permit is effective from June 17, 2026, until June 17, 2029. Some media outlets reported that the mine is preparing for small-scale resumption of production in Q4.

The resumption of this mine’s production will undoubtedly lead to an increase in lithium carbonate supply. As a result, on June 18, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract plummeted by 6.58%, and the lithium index dropped by 2.95%. Today (the morning of June 22), declines continued, with lithium carbonate 2609 falling nearly 9% at one point, and the lithium index dropping close to 5%.

Figure 1  Lithium carbonate 2609 contract candlestick chart

In fact, investing in these types of stocks requires an understanding of company intent. In my book, I used lithium carbonate as an example to illustrate how overcapacity is created.p.334-335Screenshot as follows:

Pay attention to the underlined section in the screenshot. Once you understand this principle, you should be cautious when the price of lithium carbonate approaches 200,000 RMB/ton in the future.