'That's the wrong question': Bitwise CIO reframes bitcoin bottom debate, points to long-term drivers

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the debate over whether bitcoin has bottomed is the wrong question for long-term investors, pointing instead to whether the cycle top is still ahead.

"That’s actually the wrong question for long-term investors to ask," he wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

Hougan reviewed recent research from Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered, finding the three firms split on timing and price levels even as bitcoin (BTC) trades near $67,000 following a recent bounce from multi-month lows.

Galaxy Digital: no

Galaxy Digital's bottom indicator scorecard tracks 13 conditions tied to valuation, miner stress, and sentiment that have historically marked cycle lows, including the 200-week moving average and the Mayer Multiple.

The firm found four of those conditions fully met, two partially met, and seven unmet as of June 8, putting its base-case bottom at $40,000 to $46,000, with a wider range of $30,000 to $54,000.

NYDIG: maybe, probably not

NYDIG took a similar multi-metric approach, comparing the current drawdown to bitcoin's four prior cycle troughs.

The firm concluded the pullback shows many traits of a cyclical low but lacks the outright capitulation that accompanied past bottoms, and said institutional demand may have structurally altered the cycle, meaning the bottom could already be in.

Standard Chartered: yes

Standard Chartered cut its year-end forecast in February, when bitcoin traded near $67,000, citing a deteriorating macro backdrop and ETF selling pressure.

The bank reversed course last week, calling the bottom in at $59,000 and pointing to a prospective U.S.-Iran deal and the SpaceX initial public offering as catalysts that would ease ETF-driven selling.

Standard Chartered now projects bitcoin will reach $100,000 by year-end, as stated in a note released earlier this month in which the bank said the low was "almost in."

The wrong question

Hougan said the disagreement obscures a shared conclusion: all three firms expect the bottom this year, expect it to arrive before any new top, and expect another bull cycle to follow.

"We're all asking if the bottom is in, when what matters is whether the top is in," he wrote.

The memo argues that bitcoin's long-term drivers, including rising government debt, inflation hedging demand, eroding trust in centralized institutions, and expanding institutional access, remain intact and stronger than in prior cycles.

Hougan highlighted quantum risk and regulatory retrenchment as the risks that could challenge that thesis. However, he argued that the current market landscape is an improvement on previous cycles.

"But as I see it, the setup feels better than it did during any other crypto winter," Hougan stated.

Separately, Hougan has made a string of bullish long-term calls through the recent downturn, including a March memo reiterating that bitcoin could reach $1 million as it competes with gold as a store of value, even as he described the period as a genuine crypto winter in February.