Analysis: Over Half of Bitcoin Holdings Are in Unrealized Loss, Historic Bear Market Bottom Indicator Triggered Again

BlockBeats news, June 4, according to Glassnode data, as Bitcoin once dropped to $61,300, the number of BTC in an unrealized loss state rose to about 10.5 million, surpassing the 9.8 million in profit for the first time and accounting for more than half of the circulating supply. This is the first time in the current cycle that loss-held positions have exceeded profitable ones.

Historical data shows that this indicator has only appeared during deep bear markets in the past, and has often corresponded with important market bottoms. Similar situations occurred during the bear markets of 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022, though the duration ranged from one month to one year.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price touched the 200-week moving average at around $61,300, a position that has historically served as a key long-term support during previous bear markets. Analysts believe that if BTC falls below the $60,000 mark, the next significant support will be near the realized price of about $54,000, and Bitcoin has breached the realized price in all major past bear markets.