The prospect of a Middle East ceasefire unsettles industrial metals, while technology stock corrections intensify selling pressure on copper and aluminum.
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The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, making bonds more attractive relative to stocks than at any point in the past 25 years. The earnings yield of stocks, as measured by the inverse of the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio, is now lower than the 10-year US Treasury yield, resulting in a clear yield suppression effect on the stock market from bonds. According to the Shiller model, the S&P 500 may outperform bonds by only about 1% annually over the next decade. The 20-year paradigm of stocks outperforming bonds has officially come to an end.
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