April 30 Member Morning News: Powell Refuses to "Step Down," Brent Approaches $120

1. [Powell Refuses to "Step Down"] At his final interest rate meeting as Chairman, Powell made a clear statement on Wednesday—before the Department of Justice’s criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve is "thoroughly and truly concluded, transparent in process, and clear in its findings," he has "no choice" but to remain on the Federal Reserve Board. At the same meeting, the FOMC voted 8-4 to keep interest rates unchanged, marking the most divisive Fed decision since October 1992. The last time there were four dissenting votes in a single FOMC meeting was in October 1992. The dissenters included Board Member Stephen Miran, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Notably, the three regional presidents did not oppose maintaining rates themselves but objected to the "suggestion of further adjustment to the rate corridor" in the statement, viewing this as "dovish," and argued for a neutral stance without any preset direction. Miran took the other extreme, demanding an immediate 25 basis point rate cut.

Commentary: Powell remaining on the Board is not merely a matter of personal retention, but an advance move in shaping the Fed’s future power structure. Two things are happening concurrently: First, it blocks Trump from gaining an additional seat on the Board. According to the original plan, Warsh would become Chairman, and Powell’s departure would leave a vacancy for Trump to appoint another loyalist. With Powell staying, that second vacancy disappears. Currently, Trump’s "own people" occupy 3 of 7 Board seats (Warsh, Waller, Bowman), and with Lisa Cook’s lawsuit still pending before the Supreme Court, the Board’s dove-hawk balance is far from what Trump desires. Second, it creates internal checks for Warsh: a recently retired chairman still at the table is the last kind of "predecessor" any successor wants; if Warsh tries to cooperate with the White House to accelerate rate cuts, Powell’s dissenting votes and public comments will serve as a continual market reference point. The market will see Powell’s stance as an "independent calibrator" of credibility—which is exactly the "fallback" Powell is leaving for himself.

2. [Brent Approaches $120] Brent crude oil futures surged about 6% on Wednesday, closing at $118.03 per barrel; US WTI futures rose nearly 7%, settling at $106.88 per barrel. This marks Brent’s seventh consecutive day of gains, the longest streak this year, with the June contract’s cumulative gain over the past 12 months exceeding 88%.

Commentary: At 4 a.m. today, Trump posted on Truth Social an AI-generated image of himself holding a gun in front of an explosion, with the caption "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY," adding, "Iran just doesn’t know how to sign a nuclear-free deal, they better wake up soon." On the same day, it was also revealed that the previous day, Trump summoned energy company executives to the White House to discuss "how to extend the blockade on Iranian ports for several months while minimizing the impact on consumers"; it was further disclosed that the national security team on Monday presented Trump with multiple military options for the Strait of Hormuz in the situation room.