Middle East risk premium leads to currency depreciation and capital outflows; energy shortages may cause disruption in Asian supply chains; AI exports shift from general trade — 0428 Macro Recap
Amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict, the Middle East faces increased risk premiums, and currencies of some non-oil core economies are under significant depreciation pressure. International capital is withdrawing from regional financial markets and real-economy investment projects. The conflict has led to a decline in oil export revenues and reduced willingness of oil-producing countries to hold US Treasury bonds, which in turn weakens the petrodollar cycle.
Asia has a high dependence on Middle Eastern oil and gas. If the energy shortage persists, it could lead to production stagnation, delivery delays, soaring costs, and even supply chain restructuring or disruption. Southeast Asia and South Asia lack sufficient funds for hedging, and demand-side management policies push up production costs, such as subsidy reductions and increases in industrial electricity prices.
Exports of AI-related products are showing strong growth. Taking China as an example, over half of the above-expected export growth in the first quarter was contributed by AI, and excluding AI goods, exports in various regions did not show significant improvement and even declined slightly. Currently, AI exports are transitioning from processing trade to general trade with higher added value.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
$100 Oil Prices Meet AI Computing Hardware Export Boom! Malaysian Ringgit Poised for Forex Comeback with "Dual Catalysts"
Some foreign exchange market strategists believe that, due to rising oil prices and the AI boom, the Malaysian ringgit may strengthen.
Gold tumbles to near $4,200 as hawkish Fed signals and stronger US Dollar pressure bullion
AI demand surges, but the financing "credit gate" is tightening! Under the heavy pressure of the 5% U.S. Treasury yield, compute power losers are gradually emerging
As U.S. Treasury yields rise to their highest levels since 2007, the overall financing cost for AI infrastructure construction is set to become significantly higher. JPMorgan predicts that by 2030, AI-related debt will reach $4.1 trillion.
From Saving Credit Suisse to Considering Cross-border Mergers: UBS (UBS.US) Faces a "Capital Siege", Is the Next Step Joining Forces with Wall Street?
As Switzerland's largest bank faces pressure from stricter capital requirements, several major international banks have approached UBS regarding potential mergers or other collaborations.

