Gold Approaches 4900 and Then Pulls Back: Is It Gaining Momentum to Break 5000 or Forming a Top at High Levels?

In the Asian trading session on Wednesday (April 15), spot gold touched a nearly four-week high before entering a consolidation phase, currently trading below $4,850, with the short-term rally momentarily pausing. Despite slightly lacking momentum, the overall structure is still supported by both a weak dollar and renewed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. As geopolitical risk premiums intertwine with monetary policy shift logic, gold prices are facing technical correction needs, but the bullish pattern remains unchanged. The market is waiting for new catalysts to break the current consolidation deadlock.

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The core driving force behind this round of gold price surge lies in the dollar's decline. With expectations of an easing in US-Iran relations on the rise, Vice President Vance has offered an "olive branch" to reshape the Iran nuclear deal, coupled with UN Secretary-General Guterres' optimistic remarks on negotiation prospects. This revival of risk appetite has pushed the dollar to a three-month low, providing strong support for gold prices.

Meanwhile, the "cooling" of inflation data has further solidified the gold rally logic. US March PPI was up 4% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month, both below expectations, and core PPI remained at 3.8%. This has completely extinguished fears of further Federal Reserve rate hikes and pushed US Treasury yields lower. As gold itself is a non-yielding asset, the shift in interest rate expectations has directly enhanced its relative appeal. Market analysts generally believe that the core driver of gold prices is shifting from purely risk aversion to the more sensitive "interest rate expectations trading."

However, the gold price rally is not without obstacles. On one hand, the dollar shows signs of stabilizing in the oversold region, which limits further gold price increases; on the other hand, although there are signs of easing in the Middle East, Iran's strong counter statements against US blockade measures mean that a ceasefire agreement could change at any moment. The dollar's safe-haven attribute could divert funds at critical moments. Currently, gold is in a volatility consolidation phase of "macro bullish factors not yet exhausted, but short-term divergence between bulls and bears."

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