Gold continues its three-week surge, though gains are limited by uncertain ceasefire and inflation concerns

Gold Market Maintains Upward Momentum Amid Uncertainty

The gold market has now posted gains for three consecutive weeks. Despite this positive trend, analysts caution that the outlook remains fragile and heavily influenced by developments in the oil sector.

Investor confidence in gold began to strengthen on Tuesday following news of a temporary two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. This announcement briefly propelled gold prices above $4,800 per ounce, though the rally was short-lived. By the end of the week, spot gold was trading at $4,748.90 per ounce, marking a 1.5% increase from the previous Friday.

While technical indicators for gold have improved, experts note that ongoing uncertainty could prevent prices from surpassing the $5,000 threshold in the near future.

Analyst Perspectives on Gold’s Prospects

Christopher Vecchio, who leads futures and forex strategy at Tastylive, told Kitco News that the ceasefire is still highly unstable, making it difficult to predict a lasting resolution.

“It’s challenging to be optimistic about gold with so much uncertainty in the background,” Vecchio explained. “The market needs a definitive agreement; otherwise, renewed cash withdrawals could drive prices down.”

Vecchio remains optimistic about gold’s long-term potential but sees limited opportunities for short-term trades. “Given the current environment, I haven’t found a compelling reason to engage with gold or silver,” he added.

Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s Head of Commodity Strategy, echoed this cautious stance. He acknowledged the recent price rebound and increased ETF interest but emphasized the need for greater clarity regarding the Middle East conflict. “A clear sign that the conflict is winding down would allow bullish factors to regain strength, especially if economic fallout prompts the Federal Reserve to consider lowering rates,” Hansen said.

Inflation and Economic Indicators Shape Gold’s Path

In the short term, inflation concerns continue to dominate the gold market. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% in March, a notable increase from February’s 0.3%.

Despite this jump, inflation was slightly below economists’ expectations of a 1% rise. On an annual basis, headline inflation matched forecasts at 3.3%.

Although gas prices have surged due to supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict, the data suggests that inflation has not yet become entrenched across the wider economy.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.2% last month, bringing the annual core inflation rate to 2.6%, up from 2.5% in February.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey revealed a significant decline in consumer confidence and a rise in inflation expectations.

Strategic Outlooks and Federal Reserve Policy

Roukaya Ibrahim, Chief Commodity Strategist at BCA Research, recently told Kitco News that she remains cautious about gold in the short term, as inflation risks are shaping expectations for interest rates. However, she believes that if inflation concerns begin to impact economic growth, gold could regain its appeal as a safe-haven asset.

“At present, geopolitical tensions are primarily causing an inflation shock, leading investors to anticipate rate hikes or fewer rate cuts,” Ibrahim noted. “But if these conditions persist, they could eventually slow growth and push yields lower.”

Although the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance at least through the summer, TD Securities analysts foresee the possibility of rate cuts in the latter half of the year. “We anticipate the Fed will remain cautious as the full impact of the Middle East conflict on the U.S. economy is still unfolding. There is still potential for two 25-basis-point cuts in the second half of 2026 as inflation stabilizes,” they wrote.

Experts suggest that gold could attract renewed buying interest once investors are convinced that the Fed will prioritize economic growth over inflation control.

Looking Ahead: Key Events Next Week

With a relatively quiet economic calendar in the coming week, analysts expect gold price volatility to be influenced mainly by developments in peace negotiations. In the absence of major data releases, market participants will closely monitor statements from Federal Reserve officials.

Upcoming Economic Reports:

• Monday: U.S. existing home sales
• Tuesday: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Wednesday: U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey
• Thursday: U.S. weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey