US: Energy shock set to lift headline CPI – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank economists expect a sharp acceleration in US CPI for March as higher gasoline prices feed through. They project headline CPI at 0.95% month‑on‑month, the strongest since June 2022, lifting the annual rate back to 3.4%. Core CPI is seen rising more moderately, keeping underlying inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Headline seen reaccelerating on gasoline surge
"Although oil prices have come down since the ceasefire announcement, inflation concerns are still pretty high right now, meaning that all eyes will be on today’s US CPI print for March. That’s an important one, because it’s the first to cover the period since the Iran war began on February 28, and we know from the Euro Area flash CPI print that the energy price spike is now clearly visible in the data."
"For today, our US economists are expecting a notable jump given the surge in gasoline prices, with monthly headline CPI rising to +0.95% in March."
"If realised, that would be the highest monthly print since June 2022, and it would also push the year-on-year rate back up to 3.4%, which we haven’t seen since early 2024."
"Then for core CPI, they expect a smaller uptick given it excludes energy and food prices, with the monthly core print up to +0.33%, and the year-on-year measure at +2.7%."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Multiple Factors Weigh In, Intensifying U.S. Treasury Sell-Off! 5-Year Yield Breaks 5% for the First Time Since 2007, 10-Year Yield Surpasses 5.1%
The stronger-than-expected U.S. September PMI, international crude oil prices returning above $100, and Fed governors signaling possible rate hikes have all negatively impacted the bond market. The disappointing 5-year Treasury auction has further worsened market sentiment. The psychological barrier of a 5% yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is losing its significance as a "ceiling," with the market now starting to discuss a potential 6%. In addition to rate hike expectations, fiscal and supply pressures are also driving up long-term bond yields.
According to reports, the Trump administration considered a 90-day diesel export ban, but this was later denied, with the US Secretary of Energy openly opposing it.
On Wednesday, according to Politico, the Trump administration was preparing a 90-day ban on diesel exports. Shortly after, Reuters reported that the United States was not preparing to implement such a ban. On the same day, the U.S. Secretary of Energy stated that banning diesel exports would "definitely not work," as it would force refineries to cut production, thereby driving up gasoline and jet fuel prices. After Politico's report, U.S. diesel futures fell by more than 7% before rebounding slightly, but the losses were not fully recovered.
Glassnode Has Turned Bullish on Bitcoin—They Revealed the Level They’re Waiting For
Arbitrum Price Surges as Robinhood Chain Revenue Soars — Can ARB Reach $0.30?
Crypto prices
More
