Bitwise: Latest CLARITY Act Draft Sparks 20% Drop for Circle, Future Market Cap Under Review

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, published an article stating that based on conservative assumptions, even considering recent concerns triggered by the latest draft of the CLARITY Act, he expects Circle's valuation to reach $75 billion by 2030. To date, interest income has not been the primary driver of stablecoin growth. Currently, the vast majority of stablecoins are held in a way that does not generate interest. Stablecoins have rapidly gained popularity because they allow people to transfer funds efficiently and reliably across the globe – for trade settlement, as collateral for loans, as an alternative to unstable fiat currencies, and for many other use cases. Convenience is a core advantage of money, and this is where stablecoins excel. Currently, the average annualized interest rate for ordinary savings accounts in the US is around 0.60%, and for checking accounts, it's a mere 0.07%. People deposit money into these accounts not for the interest. If the global financial system is increasingly migrating to a blockchain-based infrastructure, I anticipate stablecoins will play an increasingly important role in this transition, regardless of whether they offer interest. Based on my simple estimation – a market size of $1.9 trillion, a 25% market share, and a 0.8% profit margin – after deducting distribution fees, Circle's revenue will reach $3.8 billion by 2030, excluding other expenses. Currently, the company's actual operating expenses are relatively low ($144 million in 2025), meaning that even if these expenses double or triple by 2030, approximately $2.7 billion of revenue could still become net profit after taxes. Calculated at the current average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 (28x), Circle's market capitalization would reach $75 billion.