Former Russian Central Bank Official Warns: Fertilizer Crisis Will Trigger Global Food Price Shock in 6 to 9 Months

The near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is turning an energy shock into a deeper supply chain crisis—the fragmentation of the fertilizer market, which could reshape the global food price landscape later this year.

Alexandra Prokopenko, a researcher at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and former advisor to the Central Bank of Russia, recently issued a warning on social media: The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a supply shock, with its effects likely to be reflected in food prices in 6 to 9 months.

She pointed out that since February 28, urea prices have risen by 25% to 30%, the Gulf producing region has declared force majeure on contracts with South America and Asia, and about 1 million tonnes of fertilizer are stuck in the Gulf region.

Prokopenko emphasized that force majeure means the contracts are legally terminated, not postponed, and buyers must immediately seek alternative sources. Meanwhile, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, warned last Friday that it would take at least six months, or even longer, for energy flows in the Gulf region to return to full capacity, and said the world is facing the largest energy shock ever.

Fertilizer Market: The Next Domino in the Energy Shock

According to Bloomberg, Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White recently warned that the threat of secondary inflation effects from food prices is no less than that from energy prices. He noted that during the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian Revolution in the 1970s, food price shocks were actually greater in intensity than oil shocks, and throughout the 1970s, food inflation almost always contributed more to the overall U.S. CPI than energy did.

UBS analyst Claudio Martucci also issued a warning last week about the chain reaction from the energy shock to the fertilizer market, believing that the food supply chain could become the "next domino to fall" later this year.

Sulfur, chemicals, fertilizers, and diesel penetrate almost every aspect of agricultural production. If the vital chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed for months, the risk of a renewed surge in global food inflation rises significantly.

Russia Stands to Benefit

Prokopenko noted that the current fertilizer supply disruption presents a strategic opportunity for Russia.

Russia is a major global supplier of ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers; combined with Belarus, they cover about 40% of the global potash market. Russia and Qatar are the main urea exporters to the U.S., while Russia exports more than 45 million tons of fertilizers annually to the Global South.

Currently, importers in Nigeria and Ghana have already begun placing third-quarter orders with Russian suppliers in advance. Prokopenko believes that Putin’s gains in this round of crisis likely go far beyond short-term oil dollar revenue, representing a more strategic long-term reshaping of market share.

Three Waves of Impact: Transmission Pathway from Fertilizer to Retail Food

Prokopenko outlines a three-stage timeline for how this crisis transmits to food prices:

First wave (current): Fertilizer prices soar, and the contract system is broken.

Second wave (Q3–Q4 2026): Planted area shrinks, agricultural output decreases, and regions unable to procure in advance—like Africa and South Asia—are hit hardest.

Third wave (2027): Food price inflation is transmitted to the retail end of economies dependent on imports.

Prokopenko’s assessment is that the fertilizer crisis will not immediately turn into a food crisis, but its impacts will gradually emerge later this year. This transmission path means that the risk exposures of agricultural commodities, fertilizer producers, and emerging markets dependent on food imports deserve close attention.