'We like it more,' Bernstein says after Figure posts 156% jump in Q4 profit
Bernstein analysts said they "like it more" after Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) reported its fourth-quarter results, describing the numbers as "solid" and reiterating their outperform rating and $72 price target.
The Nasdaq-listed company posted $159.9 million in fourth-quarter net revenue, landing within the $158 to $162 million preliminary range it had shared in a recent S1 filing, according to its earnings report released Thursday. Shares of Figure closed the day down 1.8% at $34.04, implying roughly 111% upside to the analysts' target. The stock has declined 45.8% over the past month.
Figure's net income rose 156% year-over-year to $15.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, from $5.9 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $81.3 million, a 52% margin — slightly below the 55% posted in the previous quarter, a dip Bernstein attributed to one-time post-IPO fixed costs.
The company also reported $2.7 billion in loan marketplace volume for the quarter, up 8% from the prior three months and defying typical seasonal weakness.
"We closed the year with strong fourth quarter results, with triple-digit year-over-year growth in Consumer Loan Marketplace volume, increased adoption of Figure Connect, and expanding activity within our blockchain ecosystem," Michael Tannenbaum, CEO of Figure, said in the report.
New lending categories
In a note to clients on Friday, the Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said investor skepticism has centered on whether Figure is primarily a home equity line of credit (HELOC) software-as-a-service lender rather than a tokenized marketplace.
However, the fourth-quarter results show the tokenization strategy gaining momentum. Figure said Connect volume reached 54% of Consumer Loan Marketplace volume in Q4, up from 46% in the prior quarter, indicating what the analysts described as "strong progress toward the tokenized marketplace model."
Beyond HELOCs, the company is also scaling new loan categories. Bernstein highlighted roughly $100 million in debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) loans in the quarter — about four times the previous period — alongside roughly 2x quarter-over-quarter growth in small-business loans and continued expansion in crypto-backed loans.
Share repurchase
Alongside earnings, Figure announced that its board authorized a $200 million share-repurchase program. It intends to repurchase its Class A common stock and Blockchain common stock over the next 12 months.
The company also announced on Thursday its partnership with Agora Data. The deal aims to bring AI-originated U.S. auto loans onto the Figure Connect and Democratized Prime marketplaces as tokenized assets, according to a separate statement.
"Our marketplace is becoming a true capital markets highway — capable of accepting assets from multiple on-ramps and delivering standardized, transparent liquidity at scale," said Tannenbaum.
Bernstein and its affiliates have had recent investment banking and other business relationships with Figure and expect to seek additional compensation. Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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