Ripple CEO Says Clarity Act Has 90% Chance of Passing

US crypto regulation appears closer to a breakthrough as momentum builds around the long-debated Clarity Act. Fresh signals from Washington, combined with rising betting odds and executive-level engagement, suggest the bill may finally move forward after years of uncertainty.

When Could It Pass

Ripple CEO said he believes there is a 90% chance the Clarity Act will pass by the end of April. That timeline reflects renewed urgency in Washington and more structured negotiations between industry and policymakers.

Adding to the momentum, the White House has reportedly set a March 1 deadline to resolve disputes around stablecoin reward provisions. That deadline has become a focal point for lawmakers and stakeholders who want to clear the final obstacles and advance the bill.

However, the prediction markets have reacted quickly. According to a X user, the odds of passage in 2026 reportedly jumped from 56% to 84% in a single day following news of the administration’s push, signaling growing confidence that legislative action is imminent.

How Negotiations Are Unfolding

Closed-door meetings in Washington have shifted from broad debates to detailed discussions over specific legislative language. According to Stuart Alderoty, talks are now more technical and targeted, indicating that negotiators are working through final sticking points rather than reopening foundational questions.

The White House has taken a more direct leadership role in guiding discussions. Representatives from crypto companies, industry advocacy groups, and major banking associations have participated. Traditional financial groups have been vocal about potential risks, particularly around stablecoin reward mechanisms.

The core dispute centers on whether crypto platforms should be allowed to offer yield or rewards on stablecoin balances. Banks argue that high-yield products could draw deposits away from traditional savings accounts, raising financial stability concerns. In response, crypto firms have reportedly scaled back proposals to offer yield on simple idle balances. Negotiations are now focused on allowing rewards tied to specific platform activities rather than passive holdings.

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What the Bill Would Change

The Clarity Act is designed to define which digital assets fall under securities law and which are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That distinction has long been a source of legal uncertainty for companies operating in the US.

Supporters argue that clear jurisdictional boundaries would reduce compliance risk, encourage innovation, and provide a more predictable environment for both crypto firms and traditional financial institutions.

Momentum around the Clarity Act has shifted meaningfully. A firm deadline, narrowed disputes, and rising passage odds suggest that US crypto regulation may be approaching a defining moment. If approved, the bill could mark the most significant regulatory milestone for the digital asset sector to date.

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