Neumora Therapeutics Stock Jumps, Analyst Sees Upside In Alzheimer's Treatment
William Blair upgraded Neumora Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:NMRA) based on updated model adjustments that suggest a favorable risk/reward and a risk-adjusted net present value of $7.62 per share.
Analyst Myles Minter upgraded Neumora from Market Perform to Outperform on increased probability of success for NMRA-511 in Alzheimer's disease agitation (AD-A) to 35%, after data from the Phase 1b signal-seeking study of NMRA-511 for Alzheimer's disease (AD) agitation.
NMRA-511 demonstrated a clinically meaningful effect size in people with AD agitation.
Alzheimer's Disease Agitation Data
In the Phase 1b study, NMRA-511 showed a favorable safety profile with no somnolence or sedation, and meaningful improvements in agitation. Patients saw placebo-adjusted CMAI total score changes of -2.6 and -2.1 at Weeks 6 and 8, while those with elevated anxiety improved by -7.6 and -5.6, respectively.
Neumora plans broad patient enrollment in future trials to pursue a label competitive with Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd’s Rexulti (brexpiprazole) and likely Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.’s Auvelity, although patients with higher anxiety scores are expected.
William Blair projects peak U.S. sales of $1.8 billion for NMRA-511 and called the early data promising, despite prior setbacks with the V1a receptor antagonist approach.
Obesity Update
Analyst Minter also notes that positive Phase 2 data for NMRA-215 in obesity by year-end 2026 could represent a major inflection point for Neumora.
William Blair has added value to the Neumora model for NMRA-215 and modeled a 15% probability of success to unlock a greater than $2 billion market opportunity using very conservative market and penetration assumptions.
Depression Assets
The KOASTAL-2/3 trials of monotherapy navacaprant in major depressive disorder are expected to read out in the second quarter of 2026.
William Blair sees these trials as very high risk, given the prior KOASTAL-1 failure and negative data from Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ) VENTURA trials of adjunctive aticaprant.
“Although we are hesitant to ascribe any de-risking value to navacaprant, we are intrigued by this update in the KOR antagonist space,” Minter wrote in an investor note on Tuesday.
Price Action: NMRA stock is up 7.50% at $3.45 at the last check on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Image: Shutterstock
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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