Polymarket activity rebounds to new highs while Kalshi dominates in volume
Quick Take Polymarket saw its monthly volume, number of active traders and new markets soar to all-time highs in October. The platform is preparing to relaunch in the U.S. by the end of this month, and has teased an upcoming token launch. Rival prediction market platform Kalshi surpassed Polymarket’s monthly volume in October with $4.4 billion.
Decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket saw a notable resurgence in activity last month, while rival Kalshi remained the dominant player by volume in October.
The Block's data shows that the number of Polymarket's monthly active traders climbed to an all-time high of 477,850 in October, exceeding the former high of 462,600 recorded in January.
This marks a comeback from a decline in monthly traders throughout the year, falling as low as 227,420 in August. October's figure represents a 93.7% increase from September, when the platform reported 246,610 monthly users.
Polymarket's monthly volume also rebounded to a new high of $3.02 billion last month, after staying below or around $1 billion from February through August. The platform saw 38,270 new markets in October, nearly three times the number recorded in August.
"October saw a jump in activity as crypto traders shared new strategies to earn from liquidity providing, arbitrage, and information asymmetry due to Polymarket's decentralized access and function as event-driven options trading," said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research. "As anticipation builds for platform token releases, the sentiment is entirely different from last year, when retail users were mostly gambling on political and sports events."
Upcoming airdrop
While Polymarket currently does not have its own cryptocurrency, Matthew Modabber, its chief marketing officer, recently confirmed plans to launch a native POLY token and an accompanying airdrop. This news may have influenced the spike in activity, as airdrop announcements typically attract a large number of traders who flock to the platform to meet eligibility criteria.
Polymarket is now focusing its efforts on relaunching in the U.S. , targeting completion before the end of November. The relaunch would be a milestone for the platform, which exited the country following a 2022 enforcement case with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission that resulted in a $1.4 million penalty.
Since then, the CFTC has softened its previously restrictive stance on prediction markets, signaling greater openness to viewing them as innovative frontiers in the new era of information and finance.
Meanwhile, U.S.-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi outpaced Polymarket's monthly volume with $4.4 billion, solidifying the leadership position established in September.
Bloomberg reported last month that Kalshi is receiving investment proposals from venture capital investors that would value the company at up to $12 billion. Earlier in October, it raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
ECB to launch tokenized euro for institutional markets in September
Since the Outbreak of the US-Iran War, Sovereign Debt Costs in Developed Countries Have Soared; G7 Has "Borne" $16 Billion
If high yields persist until the first quarter of 2027, this figure will expand to $34 billion. The energy supply crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is one of the main drivers behind this round of rising yields. Combined with structural pressures such as increased defense spending, an aging population, and AI infrastructure, the upward trend in yields may become a long-term pattern.
For the first time in over a month! U.S. airstrikes Iran's Larak Island, oil prices surge in response
On August 30 local time, the U.S. military launched a new attack on Iran after more than a month, carrying out airstrikes on two Revolutionary Guard facilities on Larak Island. In retaliation, Iran fired missiles towards Jordan. Oil prices surged in response, with Brent crude temporarily exceeding $90 per barrel. Meanwhile, several senior U.S. military commanders warned internally that continued operations against Iran would be unsustainable, as only about a quarter of U.S. Navy destroyers are combat-ready. After six months of conflict between the U.S. and Iran, the situation has reached a stalemate, negotiations have broken down, and both sides are under pressure.
Crypto prices
More
