Analysis Company Shares July Expectations for Bitcoin and Altcoins – Will They Continue to Sleep, or Will the Giant Awaken?

July may continue to be a historically low-volume month for cryptocurrency markets, despite the intense political and economic agenda. According to a new report by Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research, this summer could be as quiet as previous years.

Recalling that July is a volatile period in the US, referred to as the “Trump trade,” Lunde drew attention to important agenda items such as the budget bill, resumption of tariff decisions, and crypto-related executive order calendars. However, despite all these potential price movements, past Julys were also notable for low-volume trading periods.

“In July 2022, Three Arrows Capital and Celsius went bankrupt. Last year, there were events such as the assassination attempt on Trump and Biden's resignation. During the same period, BTC distributions from Mt. Gox and sales by the German government put pressure on the market. Despite all this, the second lowest monthly trading volume in the last four years was seen in July,” Lunde said, adding that the market went into a kind of “sleep” in the summer months.

So what's on the agenda in July?

• July 4: The “One Big Beautiful Bill” budget bill, which President Trump is expected to sign and could increase the U.S. budget deficit to $3.3 trillion, could come into effect. This could have a short-term positive impact on digital assets such as Bitcoin, which are limited in supply.
• July 9: 90-day tariff moratorium ends. Trump is expected to take new trade measures against certain countries. This could put pressure on markets.
• July 22: Final assessment and proposal submission date for the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), which was signed in March and planned to be created with approximately 200,000 BTC (approximately $21 billion) of US seized crypto assets.

The fact that details about this reserve have not been shared with the public since March increases uncertainty. Lunde warned investors that an announcement could be made on this issue at any time.

Although Bitcoin is only 3% off its all-time high, funding rates, leveraged ETF exposures, trading volumes and options data reflect a cautious market stance, a factor that reduces the risk of sudden liquidations in potential uptrends, according to Lunde.

“It may seem lazy to assume that this summer will be as quiet as previous years. But my current base case is that nothing new is happening. So the best strategy is to remain patient and hold onto existing positions,” he said.